NORTHFIELD, N.H. ? It?s been three days since his Iowa shocker, and Rick Santorum is still in New Hampshire. He?ll be here Saturday, too, and for most of the remaining time until Tuesday?s primary.
It?s a risky play, a big bet with a seemingly modest return. Mitt Romney has something close to an insurmountable lead in the state. And there are serious questions about whether Santorum would be better suited to park himself in South Carolina, where Romney is considerably weaker and the former Pennsylvania senator?s message might be better received by the socially conservative GOP electorate there.
Continue ReadingChip Saltsman, who made the same decision to compete in New Hampshire after a surprise Iowa showing while managing Mike Huckabee?s 2008 campaign, said in hindsight that was a mistake.
?We spent precious time and resources in New Hampshire and Michigan and not in South Carolina,? Saltsman said. ?And doing it all over again, would I have put more time and resources in South Carolina to win? You bet.?
The Huckabee lesson is an important one for Santorum, who is coming off a photo-finish with Romney in Iowa?s caucuses. Like Santorum, Huckabee followed up his 2008 Iowa victory over Romney by flying overnight to New Hampshire, then campaigning hard there only to muster a distant third-place finish ? well behind John McCain and Romney.
Huckabee then narrowly lost to McCain in South Carolina, a state that appeared to be a much more natural fit for his brand. Saltsman thinks Huckabee could have won there and stopped the Arizona senator?s momentum had he better allotted his campaign resources, which, like Santorum?s, were minimal.
?Winning in South Carolina four years ago would have been a big deal that would have put us on a path to the nomination,? Saltsman said.
Santorum, however, has one persuasive reason to try to compete in New Hampshire: Unlike Huckabee four years ago, a key part of Santorum?s political identity is his history of winning elections in the Northeast, which includes much of the nation?s toughest turf for social conservatives.
It?s a point of pride for Santorum, who notes that he won his two terms in the Senate the hard way ? by running in a swing state as conservative. When asked about Mitt Romney?s own electability argument, Santorum appeared incredulous.
?Who?s won a state like Pennsylvania?? Santorum said after a town hall meeting here Thursday. ?Me! Twice. Mitt Romney?s never won a state, ever, as a conservative. Newt Gingrich has never won a Democratic district or a Democratic state as a conservative.?
Former South Carolina Rep. Gresham Barrett, who is one of Santorum?s senior advisers, provided some insight into the campaign?s choice to contest New Hampshire: Serious candidates, he said, contest each early state on the calendar. There?s also the notion that Santorum?s Catholic faith could help him in New Hampshire, where more than 30 percent of the population identifies as Catholic.
?He wants to prove that he can play anywhere,? Barrett said. ?He wants to prove to the American people that, hey, the primary system works for one, it?s a good system. Whether it?s Iowa, New Hampshire, California, South Carolina, I can play anywhere.?
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